I honestly don’t know where the markets are heading next. I cannot predict where and when the top and bottom shall take place. But I learnt it hard way, what I should do "stay" or "quit" when price is traveling beyond my reference levels.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Can you make fortune by doing nothing but simply sitting tight?

How many times we heard or read this in our trading life?.. “Sitting tight”.

Let me also give my experience through my recent trades.

Copper :

Had given few whipsaw trades around 400 price levels and had a break-out at 403. Gone long and closed it at 406 itself as it shown some weakness. It further moved all the way up to 423 and given a sell there. I was cursing myself for not following a system but made a self decision to exit that long trade. I didn’t go for a SELL since I missed a buy and wanted to wait expecting sideways movement again.

Yes, it showed 3 whipsaw trades around 420 and I was glad for skipping the trade.. and then the climax chapter.. final sell was at 417 and I didn’t follow this too as somehow I lost my charm towards copper and concentrating on Oil.. this might have been because of the itch in my mind due to missing the good long trade from 403 to 423..

Once it gave a sell at 417, it was slowly moving down and every day at open it was breaking low levels in top gear.. Finally the FOMC announcement helped it to freeze quite a few time at lower circuits.. It finally showed the low of 343 yesterday before the bounce. This is the dream run and it never gave buy since 417.. Simply a sell and hold would have generated profit of 300% if the trade was taken.. the best part is, 417 entry was given on 15th sep and the 343 low was made on 26th sep. Just 9 trading days would have added 300% returns to your portfolio.

Silver :

Started trading it from last week and first 3 trades ended with 15% loss. Fourth trade was a SELL@64500 on the 21st Sep. On the 23rd, it was falling like “no world tomorrow”. When it was trading closer to its second lower circuit of the day, booked profits and made exit from the trade.. got 100% profit apart from compensating earlier 15% loss. After booking the profit, felt like flying.. but the climax is different..

Market immediately made another lower circuit at 12% and by end of the day it closed all the way down at 52300. i.e, 15% lost from previous close. I realised that I have not even booked in the midpoint of the day but way above the midpoint of the day :). Worst part is , it made another two low circuits next day morning to show the low of 45700.. Almost 11500points down from my exit. Holding the shorts would have given me total of 300% returns..

In total, out of 600% returns, I could pocket only 100% returns though I got the entry very right.

Moral of the story :

1. Be a slave to your system. If it asks you to sit, JUST SIT TIGHT! You can make money just not doing anything but just sitting tight with your system.

2. If you are in and capture full profit of these kind of trades, then you don’t need to bother at all about the whipsaws in SAR trading. These mega profits will take care of your entire year’s whipsaw losses.

3. And very important is that, missed mega profit from the right entry is equivalent to unexpressed love. You can recover from love failure. But unexpressed love will kill you for a long time. Same applies to trading. Loss from trade can be recovered in no time. But these kind of " missed- one life time opportunity" will make you asleep for long time.

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