I honestly don’t know where the markets are heading next. I cannot predict where and when the top and bottom shall take place. But I learnt it hard way, what I should do "stay" or "quit" when price is traveling beyond my reference levels.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Jan-2011 - Huge eye-opener!!

It has been tough four months since started trading in commodities.. really loved the commodities movement which suits me well compared to nifty.. but swift movements kill you completely, if you are on wrong trade.. have been testing the system in live trading and started well with the system..but did some errors like early entry and exit, over trades etc have shown me negative returns by the end of first two months..

I have decided to go for trades only as per system and let me stop gambling... i have started Jan-2011 with staying tight on the system.. i am now happy by end of the third month as system gave me decent returns.. just posting the table below for comparison..



After analysing the trades of last three month, i have come to the following conclusion.

1. Never ever enter or exit without having the signal from your system. Only exception is that you should be in very handsome profit in a single trade. I have set the benchmark for the handsome profit as 100 points in oil and 10 points in copper from entry.

2.Don't hesitate to reverse the trade which is in huge loss(don't even think that you will get a chance next day to reverse with less loss.Next day's movement might even erode your capital completely). After reversing, you may overcome all that loss in that entry.

3. Avoid small range counters like Aluminium, Lead and Zinc.Since the range is small, entry and exit happens quite often without realising profits. SL is triggering on the same day whereas you will again see the entry price next day after exiting the trade. It also increases the turnover but the returns are not worthy for the positional trades.

4. Filters should be used to avoid false break-out trades. 0.2% is optimum filter. But if the entry is done after a big rally or fall then 0.3% filter will help to avoid whipsaws.

5. Avoid sitting infront of terminal which makes you to react for every wild tick movement.

6. Adjust the High/Low and close prices of the holiday trades in the next day's levels to reduce loss.

JUST TRADE YOUR PLAN!! thats it.. Keep it Simple Silly!!