I honestly don’t know where the markets are heading next. I cannot predict where and when the top and bottom shall take place. But I learnt it hard way, what I should do "stay" or "quit" when price is traveling beyond my reference levels.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Biggest rally i have ever seen!


What is the maximum return a trader can achieve in 50 trading days, if he is a sincere mechanical trader?

10% 

50%

100%

No..I have some better magical number. 

It’s 1000 %. 
This may sound stupid to any FA or TA people. But this post is to insist traders about the possibilities they can reach if they are disciplined and sincere to their trading system.

Ok, read below details. 

Contract name : Guarseed 

Trading Exchange :  NCDEX.

Lot Size : 100

I got a BUY entry at 4600 on 24th Nov. In the very next 2nd day, I saw 4900 on the screen and obviously booked my profits as I got neat 100% returns in just 2 days.

Rest is history which I cannot forget for a long time. It was moving up and up to finally close today at 9989. Of course in this mega rally, there were few SELL reversals which produced some loss. But, if someone would have carried the trades as per reversals from system, then the returns stand at 1072% in just 45 trading days.

What is bottom-line of this post? There are plenty of possibilities available to a trader. What is all required is a dedicated approach to his own study and methodology!. Am sure any trading system could have caught this rally but one should believe that it is happening and be with the trend without a doubt.

Negative factors before you apply your hand on NCDEX contracts:

  1. Weak hearts never try Agri commodities. Stress level is huge.
  2. Be ready for never ever seen kind of volatility. For easy comparison, I can say that volatility is equivalent to nifty traveling between 4500 and 4800, 2-3 times a day hitting your stop losses twice or thrice.
  3. Margin requirements change overnight when prices are severely trending in one direction. When I made my first buy entry of guarseed, margin requirement per lot was Rs.30000.00 but today you need Rs.4.0 lakhs for buying and for short selling it is same Rs.30000.0. You might have shorted one lot and when you open your screen next day, you may not be able reverse the trade in to buy due to short margin and have to pump huge capital for reversal.
  4. Price jumps are quite common. Last week, in the last 2 minutes of trading it spurted 200 rupees and average close was about 150 rupees below from actual close. This will dampen your TA levels severely.
  5.  I would recommend deploying only 10% of capital for trading and keeping a reserve of 90% for safe play. Sounds funny! But that is what it is and still you can make money! :)

4 comments:

mo h said...

when we are with the trend it will be Wow ... :)
when we are against the trend it will be Ouch ... :(

we will call this a Wowolatile counter!

your writeups give lots fresh knowledge into these counters, assortz, wish to see more of such posts.
takecare,
bye!!!

r m said...

Hi assortZ

Happy Pongal & Makar Sankranti!

@Mo h

Wowolatile or WowOuch? :)

regards
rm

assortZ said...

Hi Moh,

thanks!

true..true.. we go for holy grails only to make sure that we are with the trend and not standing tall against the trend :).. all the struggle is only to learn this art..

wowolatile - nice term :)

Hi RM,

thanks RM and festival wishes to you too :)

Wowolatile may be for metals and energy and WowOuch for agri commodities - howzthat :)

any copper luck RM.. can me and moh expect cheques from dehradun? :)

mo h said...

hi AssortZ,
Happy Harvest Festival buddy!
:)
Lets hope sometime our lands become greener ...

hi RM,
Makar Sankranthi!
neither Wowolatile, nor Wowouch yet ...
:)
yet to find time during mkt hours.
so only hoping on the 10% from North freezers.

all find someway or other to make ezee money not trading, hei!

will tell you when active again.

takecare,
bye!!!

mmmm .... this deeeep blue gives a cozy feel!